Bhubaneswar: The southwest monsoon is likely to make an early onset over India this year, arriving by the last week of May, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
The forecast indicates the first showers over South India before the system advances northwards. However, concerns are rising with the predicted return of El Niño. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño conditions could develop between March and July, driven by rapidly increasing sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
El Niño, a climate phenomenon marked by warmer-than-normal waters in the central and eastern Pacific, disrupts global weather patterns. Meteorologists caution that this year’s event could be particularly strong, though a clearer picture of its intensity will emerge after April.
Typically, El Niño episodes last 9 to 12 months and push global temperatures higher. It was cited as a key factor behind 2024 being recorded as the warmest year on record.
The event often triggers heavy rainfall in some regions while causing droughts in others. South Asia and Australia, in particular, face a higher risk of deficient rainfall or drought-like conditions.
With climate change amplifying extremes, experts warn that the impacts — heatwaves, erratic rainfall, and sudden heavy downpours — could be more severe this time.
Since each El Niño behaves differently, its specific impact on Odisha and West Bengal will become clearer in the coming months, meteorologists said.