Bhubaneswar: The monsoon withdrawal from the country has already started and the monsoon season will end when the month of September ends. With this, October, the cyclonic month for Odisha, will begin. Since the 1999 Super Cyclone, Odisha has been witnessing cyclone between October and December. Due to this now question arises will a cyclone be formed over the Bay of Bengal in October and what is the probability of a cyclone making a landfall in Odisha?
As of now, though it not possible for meteorologists to predict cyclone, there is a high possibility of a condition favorable for formation of cyclones. Many weather agencies of the world, including the India Meteorological Department (IMD), have estimated that La Nina conditions will form from the end of September or October. This means that the probability of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal from October to November has increased as La Nina is favorable for formation of the same.
La Nina is a climatic phenomenon which is a phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. La Nina occurs in the Pacific Ocean. In this condition, the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial regions remains cooler than normal. Strong trade winds push warm water westward. Although La Nina begins in the Pacific, its impact falls on the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal. In the Bay of Bengal, it does not directly affect the sea surface temperature. But it indirectly warms the waters in the Bay of Bengal by affecting the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the monsoon currents. As a result, the weather is favorable for formation of cyclones.